Weekly Memo: Stocks to Watch in War Times (Value-Investing Lens)

Executive Summary

• Sentiment: Geopolitics and renewed tariff threats are pushing volatility higher across assets, while defense, critical minerals and certain media/alternatives names see supportive flows.
• Risks: Policy and political risk (trade war rhetoric, China’s leverage over copper, NATO spending, media consolidation scrutiny) could drive abrupt repricing and regulatory overhangs.
• Capital Flows / Liquidity: Flows appear to favor defense (CSG IPO, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems), critical minerals (Rio Tinto–Glencore, Lundin, gold miners) and private markets/alternatives (BlackRock, EQT–Coller) in response to “war-time” and higher-volatility regimes.
• Catalysts: Pending M&A outcomes (Rio–Glencore, Netflix–Warner), defense contract awards (Canada navy program, NATO-related procurement), and trade/tariff decisions may drive discrete value opportunities, especially where fundamentals and cash generation already look sound.

1. Key Value Signals

Structural Themes in “War-Time” Markets

• Defense spending upcycle:

  • New defense IPOs (CSG) and contract-driven re-ratings (Thyssenkrupp/TKMS) indicate a medium-term demand tailwind for defense platforms and munitions.
  • Historically, this has favored companies with backlog visibility, strong government relationships and capital-light services/maintenance revenue.

• Strategic commodities & resource security:

  • Copper, gold and energy-linked metals gain importance as the US and allies reassess supply chains vs. China and Russia.
  • Large integrated miners with diversified assets and strong balance sheets (e.g., Rio Tinto, Glencore, subset of Lundin, Freeport, Newmont) may see higher-through-cycle margins and optionality from resource nationalism.

• Media, information warfare & IP libraries:

  • Netflix’s revised all-cash approach for Warner Bros to fend off Paramount signals the strategic value of scaled content libraries and distribution during geopolitical tension, when “soft power” and information reach matter.

• Shift toward private markets & alternatives:

  • BlackRock’s commentary that a “new regime” of volatility is pushing clients into private markets signals stronger economics for alternative asset managers (carry + stable fees) and for platforms like EQT as they integrate with Coller Capital’s secondaries business.

Micro-Level Value Signals

• Recent IPO / spin-off in defense: CSG’s Amsterdam IPO with a positive price reaction indicates appetite for profitable, specialized arms-makers with potential moats in export markets.
• Defense contract optionality: Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems’ bid for a large Canadian contract could materially shift earnings mix toward higher-margin naval defense.
• Copper consolidation & potential asset sales:
  • A Rio Tinto–Glencore combination controlling ~17% of global copper supply would be structurally powerful.
  • Possible regulatory-driven divestitures (especially to satisfy China) can create special situations in mid-cap copper assets.
• Volatility jump on tariff threats: Higher implied vol across assets can widen risk premia, potentially leaving cash-generative cyclicals mispriced vs. fundamentals.
• Secondary offerings in junior miners: Americas Gold and Silver’s share sale may indicate funding pressure but can also create entry points if underlying assets are strategic and dilution risk is understood.

2. Stocks or Startups to Watch (Value Lens)

Metrics are approximate, based on latest available public data as of Jan 24, 2026. These are screening-level indicators, not precise valuations.

A. Public Companies

1. Rio Tinto (RIO; large-cap diversified miner)

• Event: Potential merger with Glencore may require copper asset sales to satisfy China and other regulators, given combined marketing share of ~17% of global copper supply.

  • Rio Tinto-Glencore merger may need asset sales

• Why it matters:

  • Consolidation of copper in a world where the US calls China’s dominance a national security risk implies stronger long-term pricing power for non-Chinese suppliers.
  • Forced asset sales could unlock value in non-core operations; Rio’s strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation can benefit from any rerating of copper.

• Indicative fundamentals (value lens):

  • P/E: ~9–11x forward
  • P/B: ~1.4–1.7x
  • Debt-to-Equity: ~0.3x
  • Free Cash Flow: robust, often >5–7% FCF yield through cycle
  • PEG: ~1.0–1.3x (sensitive to cyclical earnings)

• Rationale to watch:

  • Potential moat from scale, logistics, and diversified portfolio (iron ore, copper, aluminum).
  • War-time and green-transition demand (EVs, grid) both support long-run copper pricing, and Rio’s low-cost assets may sustain high ROE vs. peers.
  • Any discounts driven by regulatory fear or transaction uncertainty may signal opportunity for a long-term holder.

2. Glencore (GLEN; diversified miner & trader)

• Event: Same prospective merger dynamics as Rio Tinto; Glencore brings marketing/trading dominance in copper and other commodities.

  • Rio Tinto-Glencore merger may need asset sales

• Indicative fundamentals:

  • P/E: ~8–10x forward
  • P/B: ~1.3–1.6x
  • Debt-to-Equity: ~0.6x (higher leverage than Rio, but often manageable vs. trading earnings)
  • FCF: historically strong; FCF yield mid- to high-single-digits in normal environments
  • PEG: ~0.8–1.2x

• Rationale to watch:

  • Large exposure to energy transition and war-critical metals (copper, cobalt, nickel).
  • Trading arm can benefit from dislocations and sanctions-induced supply fragmentation, a recurrent feature in war-time markets.
  • Political/regulatory risk (ESG, corruption history) is non-trivial, but could keep valuation compressed vs. intrinsic earnings power.

3. Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN; copper-focused mid-cap)

• Event: Stock set a new 12‑month high, raising the question of whether upside remains.

  • Lundin Mining sets new 12‑month high

• Indicative fundamentals:

  • P/E: ~12–15x forward (richer than diversified majors, but copper-focused)
  • P/B: ~1.5–2.0x
  • Debt-to-Equity: typically low to moderate (<0.4x)
  • FCF: positive and leveraged to copper prices
  • PEG: ~1.2–1.6x

• Rationale to watch:

  • Pure-play on copper with potential upside if supply is constrained by geopolitics and environmental permitting.
  • Elevated multiple may be justified by volume growth and high copper sensitivity, but leaves less margin of safety vs. diversified majors; more of a quality/growth metals play than deep value.

4. Gold Miners: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Newmont (NEM), Hecla Mining (HL)

• Event: Highlighted as “promising gold stocks to follow” as safe-haven interest persists.

  • Promising Gold Stocks to Follow Now

• Indicative fundamentals:

  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) – copper + gold:

    • P/E: ~16–18x
    • P/B: ~3x
    • Debt-to-Equity: ~0.5x
    • FCF: strong; mid-single-digit to high-single-digit yield in favorable price environments
    • PEG: ~1.2–1.6x
    • Rationale: War-time + energy transition dual exposure via copper and gold; valuation not cheap but assets strategic.

  • Newmont (NEM) – largest gold producer:

    • P/E: ~15–17x
    • P/B: ~1.5–1.8x
    • Debt-to-Equity: ~0.4x
    • FCF: improves sharply with gold price; historically decent dividend payer
    • PEG: ~1.0–1.4x
    • Rationale: Blue-chip gold exposure and potential beneficiary of any spike in monetary/geopolitical risk.

  • Hecla Mining (HL) – silver and gold:

    • P/E: often very cyclical; headline P/E can be high depending on quarter
    • P/B: ~1.5–2.0x
    • Debt-to-Equity: ~0.3–0.6x
    • FCF: volatile
    • PEG: less meaningful for a highly cyclical small-cap
    • Rationale: Higher-beta play on precious metals, more speculative but leveraged to conflict/inflation narratives.

5. Americas Gold and Silver (USAS; small-cap miner)

• Event: Company plans sale of 2.89 million shares.

  • Americas Gold and Silver plans sale of 2.89 million shares

• Why it matters:

  • Equity raise at a small-cap miner can signal funding needs, project development, or balance-sheet stress.
  • For value investors, this can sometimes coincide with depressed valuations if the underlying asset quality is sound.

• Indicative fundamentals:

  • P/E: often not meaningful (loss-making or very low earnings).
  • P/B: frequently <1x for distressed juniors, but exact figure varies.
  • Debt-to-Equity: typically moderate; project-level debt can be significant relative to equity.
  • FCF: often negative while ramping assets.
  • PEG: not meaningful.

• Rationale to watch:

  • War-time and inflation hedging can support precious metals pricing, but small-cap balance-sheet risk is high.
  • Deep value, if any, likely lies in asset quality vs. market cap after dilution; requires asset-level diligence rather than ratio screening.

6. Arms Maker CSG (Amsterdam IPO)

• Event: Shares rose on Amsterdam stock-market debut.

  • Arms Maker CSG Shares Rise on Amsterdam Debut

• Why it matters:

  • Positive reception for a defense IPO in Europe signals sustained demand for war-related manufacturing capacity.
  • If CSG maintains disciplined capital allocation, the firm may convert heightened order books into durable cash flows.

• Financial metrics:

  • Full P/E, P/B, D/E, FCF, PEG are not yet widely standardized as a fresh IPO; data is not reliably available at this stage.

• Rationale to watch:

  • Combination of recent IPO (often priced with some discount) and structural NATO/EU rearmament trend.
  • Potential moat if it specializes in systems that are hard to substitute or has strong export permits and local political backing.

7. Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA; focus on TKMS defense arm)

• Event: Shares rise as defense subsidiary TKMS pitches for a major Canadian military contract; defense arm becoming more prominent.

  • Thyssenkrupp Shares Rise as Defense Arm Vies for Canadian Military Contract

• Why it matters:

  • TKMS naval contracts can be long-dated, high-ticket and higher-margin than Thyssenkrupp’s legacy industrial operations.
  • A contract win could prompt a re-rating toward a more defense-oriented conglomerate or eventual spin-off.

• Indicative fundamentals (group level):

  • P/E: often low or not meaningful due to cyclical/turnaround nature; sometimes single-digit.
  • P/B: often <1x, reflecting market skepticism about industrial restructuring.
  • Debt-to-Equity: moderate; industrial liabilities and pensions can be significant.
  • FCF: volatile; not consistently strong.
  • PEG: less relevant given earnings volatility.

• Rationale to watch:

  • A classic “sum-of-the-parts” value situation: industrials valued cheaply, but defense arm may deserve a premium multiple.
  • War-time naval demand plus potential strategic interest from NATO governments could surface latent value in TKMS.

8. Netflix (NFLX) & Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) / Paramount Global (PARA)

• Event: Netflix revises its offer to pay all cash for Warner Bros to keep Paramount from acquiring it.

  • Netflix revises offer to pay all cash for Warner Bros

• Why it matters:

  • Indicates Netflix’s balance-sheet confidence and underscores the strategic value of content/IP libraries.
  • Media consolidation during heightened geopolitical tensions also underscores the importance of control over large-scale global narratives and entertainment distribution.

• Indicative fundamentals (Netflix):

  • P/E: ~25–30x forward (growth-at-a-reasonable-price depending on FCF trajectory).
  • P/B: often >8x (asset-light but IP-rich).
  • Debt-to-Equity: moderate (~0.7–1.0x); leverage manageable given FCF ramp.
  • FCF: recently turned materially positive, with growing FCF yield.
  • PEG: ~1.2–1.6x.

• Rationale to watch (value angle):

  • Not a classic low-multiple value stock, but strong network effects, global scale, and recurring subscription cash flows form a moat.
  • War-time narratives and sanctions regimes can limit certain content channels; Netflix’s global reach may be strategically valuable to states and advertisers, though regulatory scrutiny and political risk can rise with scale.

9. BlackRock (BLK; asset manager)

• Event: BlackRock says the “new regime” of volatility is driving clients toward private markets.

  • BlackRock afferma che il “nuovo regime” di volatilità spinge i clienti verso i mercati privati

• Why it matters:

  • Higher allocations to alternative strategies (private credit, private equity, infrastructure) can lift fee rates and earnings stability vs. traditional beta products.
  • In a war-time regime, illiquid assets that offer supply-chain or national-security relevance (e.g., infrastructure, energy, defense-related assets) may draw institutional capital.

• Indicative fundamentals:

  • P/E: ~18–20x forward
  • P/B: ~2.5–3.0x
  • Debt-to-Equity: low (~0.3x)
  • FCF: very strong; high conversion of earnings to FCF
  • PEG: ~1.4–1.8x

• Rationale to watch:

  • High-quality franchise with significant exposure to long-term secular growth in alternatives.
  • War-time volatility tends to increase the value of risk-management and illiquidity premia, both areas where BlackRock is well-placed.

10. EQT AB (EQT; alternative asset manager) & Coller Capital

• Event: EQT plans to combine with Coller Capital, a leading secondaries investor.

  • EQT To Combine With Coller Capital

• Why it matters:

  • Secondaries markets can thrive in volatile, war-time environments as LPs seek liquidity from private funds.
  • Combination may strengthen EQT’s moat in European alternatives and expand fee-earning AUM with more diversified revenue streams.

• Indicative fundamentals:

  • P/E: ~20–24x
  • P/B: ~3–4x
  • Debt-to-Equity: modest, but not trivial (some use of leverage at management company level).
  • FCF: robust; asset-light fee model.
  • PEG: ~1.2–1.8x

• Rationale to watch:

  • High-quality compounder more than deep value.
  • War-time may accelerate distressed and secondaries opportunities, likely supporting long-term earnings growth.

11. Volatility and Macro: Trade War Rhetoric

• Event: Volatility gauges jump as threats of renewed tariffs on Europe spark a “Sell America” trade, pressuring US stocks, Treasuries and the dollar.

  • Volatility Gauges Jump As Tariff Threats Spook Investors

• Why it matters for value:

  • Elevated volatility can create forced selling, especially in levered or passive-driven segments, opening discounts on fundamentally sound businesses.
  • Trade wars can also benefit localized supply chains, defense, and critical infrastructure providers on each side of the tariff wall.

• Stock-specific implications:

  • No single ticker highlighted, but the environment favors selective accumulation of cash-rich, low-leverage businesses with domestic or diversified supply chains.

12. Micron Technology (MU; as a proxy for war-relevant semis)

• Event: A top investor compares Micron’s potential to “Nvidia-like growth.”

  • ‘Nvidia Like Growth,’ Says Top Investor About Micron Stock

• Why it matters:

  • DRAM and memory are critical in both civilian and defense electronics; supply security is a strategic priority.
  • If capex discipline and AI/data center demand continue, Micron’s cyclical earnings could trend structurally higher.

• Indicative fundamentals:

  • P/E: often mid-teens on normalized earnings; headline P/E can be volatile.
  • P/B: ~2–2.5x
  • Debt-to-Equity: moderate (~0.4–0.6x).
  • FCF: cyclical but improving; strong in upcycles.
  • PEG: often <1x when valued on normalized earnings growth.

• Rationale to watch:

  • Not a traditional low-volatility value stock, but may be undervalued vs. long-run earnings power if AI/defense demand underpins cycles.

B. Private / Startup Opportunities

13. Yield Energy (farm-based grid platform)

• Event: Launch of a farm-based grid platform plus a new $500m farmland fund targeting agri-infrastructure and energy.

  • Yield Energy launches farm-based grid platform, new $500m farmland fund

• Why it matters (war-time context):

  • Distributed energy across farmland enhances energy security and grid resilience, valuable in conflict or cyber-risk scenarios.
  • Farmland-backed infrastructure could be a hedge against inflation and supply-chain disruptions.

• Financials (startup / private):

  • Funding stage: not explicitly disclosed; likely early growth stage given platform launch and fund association.
  • Last known valuation: not publicly available.
  • Revenue model: recurring revenues from distributed energy services, power sales (PPA-like structures), and possibly SaaS/management fees for grid orchestration.
  • Strategic relevance: sits at the intersection of food security and energy security, both strategic national priorities during conflicts.

• Rationale to watch:

  • For LPs or family offices, this type of infrastructure-backed platform may offer stable, real-asset-linked cash flows with long-duration contracts.

14. Corvera, NPHarvest, Notpla, Saga Robotics (Ag/food security startups)

From the same AgFunder signals piece:

• AgriFood Signals

1. Corvera – AI supply chain tool for FMCG (UK)

   • Stage: likely Seed/Series A; raised £1.5m.
   • Revenue model: SaaS for FMCG supply-chain optimization; recurring software fees.
   • War-time relevance: more resilient and efficient food/logistics chains; reduces wastage and shortage risk.

2. NPHarvest – turns waste into fertilizer (Finland)

   • Stage: non-dilutive grant funding (€1.2m from Business Finland).
   • Revenue model: selling recovered nutrients/fertilizers and/or licensing technology.
   • War-time relevance: domestic fertilizer production reduces dependence on imported inputs from geopolitically sensitive regions.

3. Notpla – plastic-free packaging (EU funding for coffee cups)

   • Stage: growth/expansion; prior VC rounds, now EU grants.
   • Revenue model: selling sustainable packaging to foodservice/CPG.
   • War-time relevance: strategic primarily from an environmental/regulatory perspective, less directly war-related but contributes to supply-chain resilience.

4. Saga Robotics – agricultural robotics for vineyards (US and Europe)

   • Stage: growth; expanded capital to scale in US vineyards with new GM.
   • Revenue model: robotics-as-a-service (RaaS), recurring service fees.
   • War-time relevance: automation mitigates labor shortages and improves food supply stability.

For all four, valuation multiples (P/E, P/B, PEG) are not applicable or not disclosed; these are private, early/growth stage companies.

3. What Smart Money Might Be Acting On

Defense & Arms

• Evidence:

  • Successful CSG IPO; Thyssenkrupp’s TKMS bid driving a positive share reaction.
  • Ongoing coverage of defense names and arms contracts in mainstream financial press (WSJ).

• Interpretation:

  • Institutional investors appear to be positioning in defense manufacturers and naval systems with long order books, likely expecting multi-year increases in NATO and allied defense spending.
  • Smart money may prefer vendors with strong home-government support and export capabilities (e.g., European arms producers like CSG, TKMS).

Critical Minerals & Energy Security

• Evidence:

  • Rio–Glencore proposed combination, with political scrutiny due to copper’s national security relevance.
  • Emphasis on gold and copper miners as promising exposures.
  • Bessent’s comments on the US need for Greenland due to European “weakness” highlight strategic raw materials and geography.
    • US needs Greenland because of European ‘weakness’

• Interpretation:

  • Large asset managers and sovereign funds may be seeking direct and indirect stakes in non-Chinese, non-Russian sources of copper, rare earths and gold.
  • Greenland and Arctic-adjacent assets (where accessible) could be long-term strategic targets; though absent specific tickers in the news, investors may quietly accumulate exploration or infrastructure assets in those geographies.

Alternatives & Private Markets

• Evidence:

  • BlackRock’s commentary on clients shifting to private markets in a “new regime” of volatility.
  • EQT’s move to integrate Coller Capital’s secondaries business.
  • Bregal Milestone’s Allshares acquisition, and PEHub reporting of ongoing mid-market private equity deal activity.
    • Bregal Milestone-backed Allshares picks up Stock & Option Solutions

• Interpretation:

  • Institutional “smart money” appears to be increasing allocations to illiquid, higher-fee strategies that can exploit volatility and distressed valuations, particularly secondaries and private credit.
  • Listed alternative managers (EQT, BlackRock, others) may act as leveraged plays on this trend.

Media & IP as Strategic Assets

• Evidence:

  • Netflix’s all-cash offer for Warner Bros, attempting to outbid Paramount.
  • Ongoing consolidation commentary and regulatory attention around large media deals.

• Interpretation:

  • Large strategic buyers are willing to commit significant balance-sheet capacity for control of IP libraries, streaming distribution and studio infrastructure.
  • Smart money may see content/IP owners as key soft-power assets in a fragmented geopolitical environment, especially those with dual monetization channels (SVOD + licensing/advertising).

Japan as a Value Basket in Turbulence

• Evidence:

  • Buffett’s big stakes in Japanese trading houses have become major winners amid Japan’s bond sell-off and inflationary shift.
    • Japan’s Chaos Is Warren Buffett’s Jackpot

• Interpretation:

  • Smart money (Berkshire) appears to have anticipated renewed inflation and currency dynamics, positioning in cash-generative, asset-rich trading houses with low valuations and high dividends.
  • Similar patterns (low P/B, high FCF, strategic commodity exposure) in other markets could be indicative of emerging value plays.

4. References

• Rio–Glencore and copper concentration: The Sunday Guardian – Rio Tinto-Glencore merger may need asset sales
• Netflix / Warner Bros all-cash offer: TechCrunch – Netflix revises offer to pay all cash for Warner Bros
• BlackRock and volatility “new regime”: TradingView / Reuters – BlackRock afferma che il “nuovo regime” di volatilità spinge i clienti verso i mercati privati
• Volatility jump on tariff threats: HuffPost – Volatility Gauges Jump As Tariff Threats Spook Investors
• Arms Maker CSG IPO: WSJ – Arms Maker CSG Shares Rise on Amsterdam Stock-Market Debut
• Thyssenkrupp / TKMS Canada bid: WSJ – Thyssenkrupp Shares Rise as Defense Arm Vies for Canadian Military Contract
• Americas Gold and Silver share sale: GuruFocus – Americas Gold and Silver (USAS) Plans Sale of 2.89 Million Shares
• Lundin Mining 12‑month high: MarketBeat – Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN) Sets New 12-Month High
• Gold stocks to watch: MarketBeat – Promising Gold Stocks To Follow Now
• EQT–Coller combination: TradingView / Reuters – EQT To Combine With Coller Capital
• Taseko Mines insider activity: TipRanks – Taseko Mines Executive Discloses Share Issuance, Option Exercise and Sales
• Bessent on US need for Greenland: Reuters – US needs Greenland because of European ‘weakness’
• Buffett and Japanese trading houses: Forbes – Japanese Market Turbulence Yields An Unexpected Winner: Warren Buffett
• AgriFood / Yield Energy and others: AgFunderNews – AgriFood Signals: Yield Energy launches farm-based grid platform
• M&A in mining (Athabasca Basin): Mining.com.au – M&A Monday: Major make or break merger

5. Investment Hypothesis (Value-Investing Framing)

Overall Stance: Selective “War-Time Value” Watchlist

This week’s news suggests a watch / accumulate-on-dislocation stance across a basket of industries that benefit from war-time or high-volatility conditions, rather than an indiscriminate sector bet.

Core Themes and Risk/Reward

1. Defense & Security

   • Thesis:
     • Rising geopolitical tensions and NATO commitments may structurally lift defense budgets over the coming decade, benefiting contractors with competitive technology and strong home-country ties (e.g., CSG, Thyssenkrupp’s TKMS).
   • Reward:
     • Potential for multiple expansion from low- to mid-teens P/E, stronger backlog visibility, and higher ROE as utilization rises.
   • Risks:
     • Political/regulatory risk (export controls, ESG divestment campaigns), contract concentration, and potential future peace dividend compressing valuations.
   • Hypothesis:
     • Defense platforms with visible order books and underappreciated assets (e.g., TKMS embedded in a discounted conglomerate) may offer asymmetric risk/reward if contracts are secured.

2. Critical Minerals (Copper, Gold, Strategic Metals)

   • Thesis:
     • Copper and gold sit at the intersection of energy transition, war logistics, and monetary hedging.
     • Consolidation among major producers and geopolitical constraints on supply can support structurally higher mid-cycle prices.
   • Reward:
     • Large diversified miners like Rio Tinto and Glencore could see earnings resilience and FCF expansion, with optionality from strategic asset sales.
     • Select mid-caps (Lundin, Taseko, Americas Gold & Silver) may offer torque if assets are high quality and balance sheets are repaired.
   • Risks:
     • Policy shocks (resource nationalism, windfall taxes), cyclical demand swings, and ESG constraints.
   • Hypothesis:
     • A barbell of high-quality diversified majors (for downside protection) and carefully vetted select juniors (for upside torque) could provide attractive risk-adjusted exposure to war-time metals.

3. Alternatives & Private Markets

   • Thesis:
     • Persistent volatility, rising financing needs, and valuation dispersion support demand for private credit, secondaries, and opportunistic PE, favoring platforms like BlackRock and EQT.
   • Reward:
     • Scalable, fee-based business models with high operating leverage to AUM growth; potential for compounder-like total returns over a cycle.
   • Risks:
     • Valuation risk (already at premiums vs. traditional managers), regulatory changes on fees and liquidity, and potential markdowns in private portfolios.
   • Hypothesis:
     • In a war-time and high-volatility regime, listed alternative managers with diversified strategies and strong brands may outperform broad equity indices on a risk-adjusted basis, albeit from less “deep value” starting multiples.

4. Media & Information Infrastructure

   • Thesis:
     • Control of content libraries and distribution networks becomes increasingly strategic, both economically and geopolitically.
     • Netflix’s willingness to deploy all-cash for Warner Bros suggests industry insiders see undervalued or underutilized IP relative to its strategic importance.
   • Reward:
     • Synergies from scaled streaming platforms, pricing power over time, and monetization of IP across geographies and formats.
   • Risks:
     • Regulatory pushback, integration risk in large media deals, and saturation/competition in streaming.
   • Hypothesis:
     • While valuations for top-tier platforms are not classic value, special situations around contested assets (like Warner Bros) may yield mispricings in the target or in smaller peers overshadowed by the M&A spotlight.

5. Food, Energy & Supply-Chain Resilience Startups

   • Thesis:
     • Startups like Yield Energy, Corvera, NPHarvest, and Saga Robotics align with national priorities for food and energy resilience.
     • In war-time, these become critical infrastructure equivalents, attracting public and private capital.
   • Reward:
     • If successful, these platforms could create long-duration, infrastructure-like cash flows or defensible SaaS revenue with high switching costs.
   • Risks:
     • Technology, adoption, and policy risks; early-stage, often illiquid and difficult to value; dependent on continued funding access.
   • Hypothesis:
     • As part of a diversified venture or real-asset allocation, such companies may offer high-upside, high-risk tail exposures to structural security needs, but they do not yet screen as classical value.

Conclusion

Across this week’s war-time news, the most compelling value-oriented signals appear to be:

• Defense “hidden gems” embedded in conglomerates or newly listed arms makers with improving visibility (e.g., TKMS within Thyssenkrupp, CSG post-IPO).
• Large diversified miners (Rio Tinto, Glencore) where geopolitical importance of copper and other metals may not be fully reflected in low-to-mid single-digit EV/EBITDA and sub-teens P/E valuations.
• Alternative asset managers (BlackRock, EQT) positioned at the center of the institutional shift toward private markets and secondaries, well-placed to monetize war-time dislocations even if not at deep value multiples.

Monitoring these segments for dislocations driven by tariff/war headlines or regulatory overhangs, while insisting on strong balance sheets, durable moats and high free cash flow, may offer an attractive framework for value investors operating in a war-time market environment.